Press release posted 21 July 2025
A collaboration between a team of researchers in the UK and the US has created a way of accurately predicting the likelihood of cancer returning for patients with Hodgkin lymphoma, a type of blood cancer.
This world’s first predictive model is designed specifically for patients diagnosed with early-stage classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) and is a step-change for the personalised treatment of this form of the disease.
The tool known as E-HIPI can predict with a high level of accuracy if a patient’s cancer will return in the next 2 years. The online calculator looks at certain factors relating to a patient including sex, tumour size, and levels of haemoglobin and albumin in the blood to assess the patient’s likelihood of the cancer returning in the next two years.
The research, published in NEJM Evidence, draws on clinical trial data from 3,000 patients enrolled in four international clinical trials between 1994 and 2011. It was then validated in a further 2,360 patients treated over a similar time period.
Although relatively rare, with an incidence of 3 in 100,000 people, Hodgkin lymphoma is the most common type of cancer diagnosed in adolescents aged 15-19 years old.
The research study is a collaboration between The University of Manchester and The Christie NHS Foundation Trust in the UK and RWJBarnabas Health and Rutgers Cancer Institute in New Jersey and Tufts Medical Center in the United States.
Professor John Radford, who is Professor of Medical Oncology at The University of Manchester and Consultant Medical Oncologist at The Christie NHS Foundation Trust explains: “This is the culmination of two decades of work. We wanted to find a better way to predict the outcome of people with early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma following treatment. Until now we have lacked a robust tool but we can now forecast how well individual patients are likely to respond to treatment, offering hope for more tailored and effective therapies.
As co-author of the study and one of the UK’s leading lymphoma experts, Professor Radford added. “Crucially the new tool can estimate a patient's likelihood of remaining cancer-free two years after treatment which is a real game-changer. For some patients, it may mean avoiding overtreatment and its long-term side effects. For others, it may flag the need for closer monitoring or more intensive therapy.”
“Early-stage classic Hodgkin lymphoma is a highly curable cancer, particularly among young adults. However, despite high survival rates and significant advances in treatment, we’ve lacked a validated tool to assess outcomes and estimate a patient’s individual risk of relapse,” said Dr Andrew Evens, who is System Director of Medical Oncology and Oncology Lead, RWJBarnabas Health Medical Group. “Through this global collaboration we developed a robust, dynamic, and data-driven model that has the potential to improve long-term outcomes for patients worldwide.”
This research was made possible by the HoLISTIC Consortium – an international group of experts working together to improve the treatment of Hodgkin lymphoma. The Consortium’s shared resources enabled the development and testing of the E-HIPI tool. As more data becomes available, the Consortium will continue to improve the model to help doctors make better treatment decisions in the future.
Dr Susan Parsons, medical director of the adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivorship programme and research director of the Center for Health Solutions at Tufts Medical Center, co-founder of the HoLISTIC and co-senior author of the study said: “Key risk factors identified included being male, having lower haemoglobin or albumin levels, and presenting with a larger maximum tumour diameter. These findings did not surprise us, but the strength of the E-HIPI lies in combining them into a single, quantitative tool. While the prognosis for early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma remains excellent, not all patients respond equally to treatment. For the first time, doctors can now make risk predictions based on a patient’s individual profile, rather than relying solely on broad demographic groupings.”
Dr Angie Mae Rodday, investigator in the Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies at Tufts Medical Center, biostatistician at the Tufts Clinical and Translational Science Institute and lead statistician for National Cancer Institute's funded project explains. “When we compared our model to existing classification systems, it had better performance and was more strongly related to patient outcomes. The smart calculator we developed as a result of this work is accurate, accessible, easy-to-use and is completely free for patients and clinicians. The model’s simplicity is also one of its greatest strengths and it is expected to be adopted widely and quickly.”
In the development cohort, the model estimated a two-year progression-free survival (PFS) rate of 93.7%. Validation cohorts showed slightly lower rates (90.3% and 91.6%), reflecting real-world diversity in patient populations. Importantly, E-HIPI performed well across both groups, outperforming the widely used EORTC (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer) criteria.
This study is funded by the National Cancer Institute in the United States.
Professor John Radford is a researcher within the Living With and Beyond Cancer Theme at the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Manchester Biomedical Research Centre.
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